驾驭农产品价格波动

101年的通货膨胀

我们问了Jason DeVinny，研究分析师 CHS全球研究团队来回答一些澳门皇冠赌场平台通货膨胀的关键问题. 该小组试图教育农民, 牧场主和合作社的市场信息, 分析和见解，以帮助通知决策.

现在通货膨胀的规模和范围是什么?

在全球范围内，没有一个国家能毫发无损. Before the pandemic, global inflation was averaging around 4% per year. 美国.S. 当日历转到2022年时，大约是7%吗, and the International Monetary Fund thinks there will be another 4% increase for developed nations including the U.S. 今年. 这是大.

是什么导致了通货膨胀的上升?

其中一些是供应驱动的. Coming out of the pandemic, people have cash and they want to spend it. There are industries that can’t keep up with demand because of labor shortages or lack of materials. 其他行业本可以跟上需求, but ran into significant logistical challenges across almost every area of global transportation. 其中一部分是劳动力成本:随着通货膨胀的加剧, workers demand higher wages and businesses raise prices to cover those increases. 这就形成了一个恶性循环.

我们能做些什么呢?

The Federal Reserve’s goal is to delicately bring prices down and get inflation more in line with long-term goals of around 2% annually without harming business growth, 这会让我们陷入经济衰退吗. Historically, periods of high inflation have been followed by a recession.

今年3月16日, the Fed made a long-awaited announcement that it would raise interest rates by a quarter point. What markets and observers are watching now is the pace and size of interest rate increases over the balance of the year.

通货膨胀对农民是好是坏?

我们现在只能粗略地回答这个问题. 美国SDA has reported that cash receipts at the farm gate in 2021 were way up versus prior years. 如果你的损益表的顶端是健康的，那就太好了. 美国SDA is also suggesting that the forecast for 2022 looks promising.

但这只是问题的一半. When you look at the other side of the coin, farm production expenses are up significantly.

I think the opportunities to make money were there in 2021 for farms that had a good growing season and/or crop to sell and were able to effectively manage margins through input and marketing decisions. And the USDA is forecasting that the opportunity could be there again 今年. 

那么借款成本呢??

As the Fed raises interest rates, borrowing costs will increase for everyone, including farmers. Farmers today actually have a bit more cash than in past years and are enjoying greater liquidity. They’ve been able to cut down debt in both real estate and non-real estate holdings. 在2022年4月的报告中, the Federal Reserve noted that farm loans had increased at the fastest pace in nearly four years but remained modest by recent standards.

Any advice for farmers during this time of volatility and uncertainty?

Stay nimble and consult with experts across the spectrum of input needs and marketing opportunities. They are dialed in to their respective markets and can provide advice on decision-making. Opportunities are there for 2022, and I think there can be good upside for farmers.